Elections will take place in Mississippi in less than two weeks, and a lot is at stake. Statewide elections, legislative races, and Initiative 42 will be discussed in this blog post.
Statewide Elections
Statewide elections are expected to be mostly uncompetitive with the exception of the attorney general race with incumbent Democrat Jim Hood favored over Mike Hurst. The GOP has dumped a good bit of money in this race but I still expect Hood to win, probably with around 55-60% of the vote. Hurst should win all of the Simpson 2011 counties (Rankin, DeSoto, Lamar, Pearl River, Hancock) + some random rural counties (particularly in South Mississippi). Hurst will also have a shot at Harrison County and Jackson County on the Coast. But it probably won’t be enough to give him the victory.
Legislative Races
The House
Complete list of House predictions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit?usp=sharing
The big legislative races this year are in the House, with the GOP currently holding a 67-55 advantage. The GOP also will gain a few seats this year due to Census redistricting. The Democrats’ goal is to get a simple majority (62 seats) while the Republicans are looking to get to a 3/5 majority (74 seats). However, I don’t think either of these things happen.
How can Republicans get to 74? Republicans start off with 56 seats that they are solidly favored in, and according to my predictions, there are 21 seats ‘up for grabs’ (labeled as toss-up or lean). If there are 21 seats up for grabs, then they’ll need to win 18 of those to get to 74. Not likely to happen. To get to 74, they’ll need to win all 12 lean R races and 6 of the (9) races that are either toss-ups or lean D. It is possible for them to get to that, but it is not probable to happen. I’ll give the GOP a 10% chance at getting to the magic number of 74.
How can Democrats get to 62 and a simple majority? They start off with 45 seats they are heavily favored in, meaning they need to win 17 of the 21 ‘up for grabs’ seats to get to 62. This would require Democrats to win all 4 lean D seats, along with 13 of 17 seats that are toss-ups or that lean R. Similar to the GOP getting to 74, this is also not likely to happen. Still I can’t completely rule this out from happening and I’ll give the Democrats a 15% chance at getting a majority/62 seats.
Key Races
District 3 (Booneville and Prentiss County)
Incumbent Republican William Arnold squares off against Laura Childers, the daughter of one of Mississippi’s most prominent Democrats (Travis Childers) in this rural district. This area has a strong Dixiecrat tradition (and has actually voted for the Democrats in gubernatorial elections 3 of the past 4 cycles). It’s also an area where most children attend public schools, and the voters here could be influenced by Init 42. I’ll says Childers wins in a race that should be close.
District 12 (Oxford and Lafayette County)
Incumbent Republican Brad Mayo faces city councilman JP Hughes. This district includes Oxford and the University of Mississippi (or “Ole Miss” to the locals). The area still leans GOP overall but the presence of the university and the fact that Oxford is a public school town (again, the Init42 factor) make this race interesting. I think Mayo wins narrowly, but I would not be surprised to see Hughes win either. Should be another close race.
District 13 (Lafayette County, Benton County, Marshall County)
Another 1st term GOP incumbent (Steve Massengill) goes up against a Democrat challenger (Justin Cluck). Cluck is a Holly Springs lawyer who stands a decent shot in this rural district. I’ll give Massengill a slight nod here, but this is a race which is almost a pure toss-up.
District 20 (Mantachie, Lee County and Itawamba County)
Randy Boyd, another Republican who was swept into office during the 2011 GOP wave, is being challenged by Democrat Clint Gannon. Gannon is a conservative Democrat (touts his NRA and Right to Life record) but is very supportive of public schools and Init42. This area is known to support blue dogs and is another race where either candidate could easily win.
District 21 (Fulton and Itawamba County)
Donnie Bell, a longtime Democrat, switched to the GOP following the 2011 elections. He’s being challenged by Itawamaba Tax Assessor Aaron Loden. Loden should have solid name recognition in the district because of his countywide position and may be able beat the incumbent here. This is another district with a Dixiecrat tradition.
District 46 (Carrollton, Montgomery County, Carroll County, and a small part of Leflore County, Webster County, and Grenada County)
Open seat replacing Republican Bobby Howell. Karl Oliver of Winona survived the 3-man primary to become the GOP nominee. Ken Strachan (Carroll County coroner) is the Democratic nominee. This district takes in all of Montgomery County, most of Carroll County, and the white part of Leflore County (includes the large North Greenwood precinct which is heavily GOP). Webster County and Grenada County also have about a combined 1000 votes in this district. I look for Oliver to win the Montgomery County boxes and Strachan winning the Carroll County boxes. The Grenada/Webster precincts are hard to predict but I do think Leflore will favor Oliver/GOP, as again the two precincts from District 46 in this county went heavily for Romney (almost 70% of the GOP vote in Leflore came from the large North Greenwood precinct). This will be another tight race, but I think the Republicans have the slight advantage.
District 53 (Brookhaven, Lincoln County, Franklin County, Lawrence County, Jeff Davis County, Pike County)
Incumbent Bobby Moak is the Democratic leader of the House and has drawn a GOP challenger, Vince Mangold of Brookhaven. The GOP really wants this seat and has a shot as the area is conservative and favors the GOP most of the time. Moak has the advantage as an incumbent (and by being the Democratic leader) but Gov. Bryant has backed Mangold and has campaigned with him. Look for Moak to win in a close race, probably within 7-8 points.
District 86 (Waynesboro, Wayne County and a little of Greene County and Perry County)
Incumbent Democrat Sherra Lane is running against GOP challenger Shane Barnett, a Waynesboro city councilman. This is another district that has a Democratic representative but goes GOP in most other elections. Barnett has decent name recognition as a city councilman but the fact that this district is 36% black VAP kinda works him against him. If Lane wins around 30% of the white vote, she’ll probably win this race.
District 105 (Leakesville, Greene County and Perry County)
Incumbent Republican Dennis DeBar ran for a State Senate spot (won primary, favored to win general) so we have an open seat here. The GOP has nominated Roun McNeal, a lawyer from Leakesville and he faces Dennis Cochran who is an administrator for a local school district. Cochran is running as a conservative Democrat which really is the only way to win in this district. This could be a great chance for the Democrats to steal a district with DeBar leaving for the Senate. I think Cochran may have the edge due to his position as a school administrator (which should help with Init42 on the ballot).
District 122 (Bay St Louis and Hancock County)
Democrat David Baria is the incumbent in this district and is up against Mickey Lagasse from the GOP. Baria is one of the more liberal whites in the House. The district is half urban/half rural with the Bay St Louis precincts likely to favor the Democrats (precincts in this town went a combined 40% for Obama ’12, and Bay St Louis is only 20% non-white, so a few progressives live here). The other part of the district is made up of the Kiln community and the Diamondhead community. What helps the GOP is that the district is only about 10-15% black VAP but enough whites should vote for Baria to give him the victory.
The Senate
Complete list of Senate predictions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit?usp=sharing
The GOP is almost certain to retain control of the chamber but there are still some interesting storylines and races. The Republicans want a 2/3 majority, which requires 35 seats (and a +3 GOP gain), however best case scenario I see for them is that they get to 34 (+2 GOP gain and one short of 2/3 majority). The GOP starts off with 28 seats that they are heavily favored in, which already gives them a simple majority. Then they would need to win all 6 lean R/toss up races which would get them to 34. The problem at this point is that the remaining 18 districts are either safe D/likely D meaning the GOP would have to pull a huge upset to get to 35. With all that being said, here are the five races in the Senate that I will be keeping a close eye on during Election Night.
Key Races
District 4 (Corinth, Alcorn County and Tippah County)
This district takes in all of Alcorn County and Tippah County. This a rematch of the 2011 race where Republican Rita Potts Parker won over Democrat Eric Powell. This will be the fourth straight year that Powell runs for a Senate spot (lost narrowly in ’03, won ’07, lost narrowly in ’11). When Powell won here in 2007, he was the first African-American to ever represent a majority-white district in Mississippi. Not only was it majority-white, it was about 90% white, which made it even more noteworthy. Common sense says Parker wins this one, but Powell is fairly popular around these parts and could win especially if the pro-public education folks turn out.
District 9 (Oxford, Lafayette County and Panola County)
This district is similar to HD-12 in that it takes in Oxford, Ole Miss, and Lafayette County (also some of Panola County). Gray Tollison is the incumbent, he’s a Republican who switched over to the GOP following the 2011 elections. Democrat challenger Cristen Hemmins is a self described progressive who strongly backs Init42 and was a vocal opponent of Personhood. Again, this area typically leans toward the GOP but there are young progressives and college students in this district which could help Hemmins. However, I do think Tollison beats her in a tight election.
District 22 (Much of the Delta)
Buck Clarke (GOP) is the incumbent and has the honor of being the only white Republican to represent a majority-black state legislative district in Mississippi. As mentioned in the previous sentence, this is a VRA district (51% black VAP) but Clarke has been known to get to some of the minority vote here in the past. The boundary lines zig zag across the Delta taking in several counties, including the west part of the city of Cleveland which is majority-white and strongly backs the GOP. The Democrats nominated Joseph Thomas, a former state senator from Yazoo City. Being that this is a VRA district, one would likely think the black Democrat wins but I think Clarke can get enough of the black vote in this election to retain his seat.
District 37 (Natchez, Adams County, Franklin County, and Pike County)
Another rematch from 2011 with Republican Melanie Sojurner going against Democrat Bob Dearing. Dearing represented this district from 1980-2011 and is a conservative Blue Dog Democrat. Sojourner is a Tea Party favorite and was Chris McDaniel’s campaign manager for his US Senate bid in 2014. The district takes in a couple of counties including white/GOP precincts in McComb and Natchez. I’ve gone back and forth trying to predict this race but I’ll give Sojourner a small edge as the incumbent plus this district leans GOP overall.
District 48 (Gulfport, Pass Christian, and Harrison County)
Incumbent Democrat Deborah Dawkins, a favorite among Mississippi progressives, is being challenged by Republican Walter Crapps. The GOP very much wants this seat, in fact they’ve come out and said this is their #1 Senate target. With the black VAP around 34%, Crapps needs to win about 70% of the white vote which probably happens in a presidential election in this district but it’ll be tougher to get to that number in a legislative election against a 4-term incumbent. That being said, Crapps is being backed hard by the state party (as previously mentioned) and he does have a chance at taking down Dawkins.
Initiative 42
Init42 is arguably the biggest topic this election cycle and much debate has taken place over the past few months regarding the proposed constitutional amendment. I actually do think it will help a few candidates in legislative elections but I still think it fails, mainly due to the ‘alternate language’. RethinkMS had an excellent article discussing the impact of this alternate language and how it affects 42’s chances. Not only does it make Init42 harder to pass, but the alternate language also may be confusing to many Mississippians (particularly those who are black and/or poor, and common sense says this demographic would probably favor Init42).
My guess is that around 60% vote yes on the first question which (according to the article) means that 42 must receive about 70% on the second question to pass in this scenario. What makes Init42 even crazier is that you can vote against both proposals in question 1 but still vote for 42 or 42-A in question 2!
For 42 to pass, it’ll need to have the support of suburban whites (especially those who send their kids to public schools). Minorities and poor whites are expected to support 42. Private school parents probably won’t support 42, private schools are all over Mississippi but most are situated in Metro Jackson or the Delta and it’ll be interesting to see how this group votes on 42 come Election Day. Again, I think 42 is unlikely to pass but if there is a huge pro-public education turnout it could pass even with the alternate language.
Catfish Po-Boy 