Mississippi held statewide elections on Tuesday, with Republicans coming out as the winners after gaining seats in the Legislature and the defeat of Initiative 42. The Democrats did hold on to the attorney general’s office but overall had a rough night as the results came in. We’ll know more about what happened when the precinct totals come in sometime next week but here are my initial thoughts.
Statewide Elections
No real surprises in the statewide races, although Bryant winning with 67% and carrying Jeff Davis, Clay, Kemper, Adams, and Sharkey Counties was a bit shocking. He also nearly won some counties in the Delta that are very strongly Democratic (Coahoma, Washington, Sunflower, Tunica, Bolivar, etc). Bryant won around 30% in Jefferson/Claiborne County, where African-Americans make up almost 90% of the electorate. Either some black voters supported Bryant in this cycle, or the voter ID law that is now in effect is hurting black turnout.
The attorney general contest was the closest statewide race (as expected) but Jim Hood still pulled it out with 55% of the vote. Hurst was able to win all 3 Coast counties, along with Madison and Lee but still fell short. He also swung some rural counties in South Mississippi, most notably Jones County and the three “inner Coast” counties. Hood swept most of NE Mississippi, but the margins were very close with most counties giving Hood a slight win of under 10 points. Odds are that this will his Hood’s last hurrah, and I would expect the GOP to take this office in 2019.
Legislative Races
The GOP gained 5 seats thanks to Tuesday’s results, and outperformed the expectations (I said the chamber would stay at 68-54 in favor of the GOP) that I came up with in the preview. In the Senate, the GOP gained one seat (due to 2010 redistricting) and I actually nailed my predictions for all 52 Senate districts #humblebrag.
Starting with the House, the Democrat made efforts to defeat incumbents in Districts 3, 12, 13, 19, 21, and 97. They whiffed on all of those with the exception of the District 12 race in Oxford. I was a little surprised that the races turned out the way they did, but what really got me was that the GOP won most of these races by decent margins (15-20 points). The big open seats (46, 90, 105) were swept by the Republicans and I thought the Democrats had a shot at winning all three.
A few Democrat incumbents were ousted, most notably Bobby Moak (minority leader) but also Bo Eaton and Sherra Lane. David Baria of Bay St Louis narrowly escaped a GOP challenge from Mickey Lagasse. With Moak out, Baria may be mentioned for the now vacant minority leader position (more on this later). Moak losing was a big hit for the Democrats, and I’m not sure if his loss can be attributed to ideology, party, or because he reportedly lives in the Jackson area (not in his Lincoln County based district). I figured Lane and Eaton would both win but ultimately their district’s conservative leanings won it for the GOP.
The Senate races went about as expected with the GOP gaining 1 seat due to redistricting. All the incumbents won, but there were some close races. Melanie Sojourner looks to have held on against Bob Dearing in a very tight election with Sojourner pulling out in front after two precincts from Pike County came in late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Buck Clarke won by 10 points although some precincts in Bolivar County were in the wrong Senate district but it appears that it won’t have any affect on the outcome. Kinda strange though.
Elsewhere, Republicans Gray Tollison and Rita Parker won re-election bids over decent Democratic challengers. Progressive favorite Deborah Dawkins of Pass Christian won her race over Walter Crapps by 10 points in a race that the GOP very much wanted to win.
GOP supermajority and new minority leader
The GOP finished with 73 seats on Tuesday but today Jody Steverson of Ripley switched parties to get the GOP to 74 and a supermajority. Kenny Wayne Jones (state senator who lost primary) was quoted on the Gallo Show this morning saying that “at least” three Democrats could switch over to the Republican side. So the GOP could end up with 76+ in their caucus when it is all said and done.
As previously mentioned, House minority leader Bobby Moak lost his re-election bid so the Democrats will have to choose a new leader for their House caucus. With over 80% of the Democratic caucus now African-American, I expect the Black Caucus to make a real push at making one of their members the new minority leader. I’m not sure who would emerge from that group but I’d say that there’s a good chance that an African-American will finally head up the Dem caucus. If not, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was David Baria that replaces Moak.
Initiative 42
I wasn’t stunned to see Init42 fail, but I did not expect the county-by-county map to look the way it did. First of all, 42 getting clobbered in NE Mississippi (where public schools easily outnumber private schools) surprised me as I thought that such a populist measure would get some support up there but ultimately that did not happen. 42 was also overwhelmingly shot down in suburban counties (Rankin, DeSoto, Lamar, Madison) which further hurt the chances of the initiative passing. As expected, 42 garnered the most support in Hinds County and the Delta but those areas did not have enough votes to put 42 over the top.
Elsewhere
Democrats took control of Public Service Commission with Cecil Brown winning an open seat in the Central District that gives the Dems a 2-1 advantage on the board. It’ll be interesting to see how much effect this has on the Kemper power plant.
It was a good night for proponents of alcohol in Mississippi as Stone County (pop. 19,000) had a referendum on liquor sales, and it did end up passing. Also, Tishomingo County (pop. 20,000) citizens voted to keep liquor sales in a Tuesday referendum with 54% voting “FOR”.
On the Jackson County Board of Supervisors, 3 of the 5 members were re-elected despite controversy over the handling of the Singing River pension fiasco.
Catfish Po-Boy 